Protection provided by vaccination, booster doses and previous infection against covid-19 infection, hospitalisation or death over time in Czechia.

Studies demonstrating the waning of post-vaccination and post-infection immunity against covid-19 generally analyzed a limited range of vaccines or subsets of populations. Using Czech national health data from the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic till November 20, 2021 we estimated the risks of reinfection, breakthrough infection, hospitalization and death by a Cox regression adjusted for sex, age, vaccine type and vaccination status. Vaccine effectiveness against infection declined from 87% at 0-2 months after the second dose to 53% at 7-8 months for BNT162b2 vaccine, from 90% at 0-2 months to 65% at 7-8 months for mRNA-1273, and from 83% at 0-2 months to 55% at 5-6 months for the ChAdOx1-S. Effectiveness against hospitalization and deaths declined by about 15% and 10%, respectively, during the first 6-8 months. Boosters (third dose) returned the protection to the levels observed shortly after dose 2. In unvaccinated, previously infected individuals the protection against infection declined from 97% after 2 months to 72% at 18 months. Our results confirm the waning of vaccination-induced immunity against infection and a smaller decline in the protection against hospitalization and death. Boosting restores the original vaccine effectiveness. Post-infection immunity also decreases over time.

Protection by Vaccines and Previous Infection Against the Omicron Variant of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evades immunity conferred by vaccines and previous infections. METHODS: We used a Cox proportional hazards model and a logistic regression on individual-level population-wide data from the Czech Republic to estimate risks of infection and hospitalization, including severe states. RESULTS: A recent (≤2 months) full vaccination reached vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42%-44%) against infection by Omicron compared to 73% (95% CI, 72%-74%) against Delta. A recent booster increased VE to 56% (95% CI, 55%-56%) against Omicron infection compared to 90% (95% CI, 90%-91%) for Delta. The VE against Omicron hospitalization of a recent full vaccination was 45% (95% 95% CI, 29%-57%), with a recent booster 87% (95% CI, 84%-88%). The VE against the need for oxygen therapy due to Omicron was 57% (95% CI, 32%-72%) for recent vaccination, 90% (95% CI, 87%-92%) for a recent booster. Postinfection protection against Omicron hospitalization declined from 68% (95% CI, 68%-69%) at ≤6 months to 13% (95% CI, 11%-14%) at >6 months after a previous infection. The odds ratios for Omicron relative to Delta were 0.36 (95% CI, .34-.38) for hospitalization, 0.24 (95% CI, .22-.26) for oxygen, and 0.24 (95% CI, .21-.28) for intensive care unit admission. CONCLUSIONS: Recent vaccination still brings substantial protection against severe outcome for Omicron.

Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose.

Following initial optimism regarding potentially rapid vaccination, delays and shortages in vaccine supplies occurred in many countries during spring 2021. Various strategies to counter this gloomy reality and speed up vaccination have been set forth, of which the most popular has been to delay the second vaccine dose for a longer period than originally recommended by the manufacturers. Controversy has surrounded this strategy, and overly simplistic models have been developed to shed light on this issue. Here we use three different epidemic models, all accounting for then actual COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic, including the real vaccination rollout, to explore when delaying the second vaccine dose by another 3 weeks from 21 to 42 days is advantageous. Using COVID-19-related deaths as a quantity to compare various model scenarios, we find that the way of vaccine action at the beginning of the infection course (preventing infection and symptoms appearance), mild epidemic and sufficient vaccine supply rate call for the original inter-dose period of 21 days regardless of vaccine efficacy. On the contrary, for the vaccine action at the end of infection course (preventing severe symptoms and death), severe epidemic and low vaccine supply rate, the 42-day inter-dose period is preferable, at any plausible vaccine efficacy.